Huckabee vs. McCain Prediction

Staying solid, but not necessarily exceeding expectations, Huckabee has been holding tight through the New Hampshire and Michigan primaries. Now with more conservative states on the horizon (South Carolina and Florida), Huckabee is coming back into the spotlight.

For those who are addicted to the latest polls, Rasmussen reflects this shifting surge. On Wednesday they released a new South Carolina poll showing John McCain and Mike Huckabee tied for first place at 24%, closing down a nine point lead the Senator previously held following his momentum after a strong victory in New Hampshire. Then on Thursday Rasmussen released national polling with Mike Huckabee holding a three point lead over the entire republican field.

We would like to remind our readers that not only are poll numbers several days behind actual trends, they tend to only be accurate to within five to ten points. New Hampshire polls consistently predicted a ten point lead for Obama in New Hampshire, but as we all know, Clinton ended winning by two points.

It is bold to even make educated predictions, but our gut feeling about South Carolina is that Huckabee will deliver a surprise landslide victory over McCain. Up until a week ago Huckabee had been consistently holding a seven point lead in the state. The rapid shifting in poll numbers only illustrates that voters are easily swayed and undecided. Remember, McCain was tied with Romney in Michigan polls only days before suffering a nine point loss on election day.

The lesson so far has been that a victory provides a false surge in a candidate's polling numbers. Since we have evidence that McCain's numbers in South Carolina are returning to normal, and the factor that they may also be overinflated, the chances seem to be in Huckabee's favor. Also reassuring is the historic fact that McCain's liberal positions on social issues lost him South Carolina in the 2000 presidential primary to George W. Bush.